Navigating Ambiguity

Everyone in tech is facing major ambiguity at the moment. AI and widespread tech layoffs have led to an increasingly competitive landscape and a bearish design market. Furthermore, the design challenges presented by AI are revealing themselves more each day as both the technology and its use cases evolve. It feels like the ground beneath us is constantly shifting.

Jacob Nielsen calls this interaction shift from "Command-Based interaction" to "Intent Based Outcome Specification" the 3rd major paradigm shift in User Experience, and he's absolutely right to highlight how fundamental the impact is for those of us who design and build products. (Read his full article for additional context.)

As someone who's navigated 14 years of UX design through multiple industry shifts, I've learned that our relationship with ambiguity—how we perceive it, engage with it, and move through it—determines whether we thrive or merely survive these uncertain times. So I want to speak to the emotional experience of ambiguity and share some insights for how to work through it productively.

Understanding Ambiguity vs. Uncertainty

First, let's define what we mean by ambiguity, because there's an important distinction between ambiguity and uncertainty that changes how we should respond to each.

Ambiguity refers to situations where multiple possibilities exist at the same time, while uncertainty is more limited—it's about facing a situation without a clear outcome. For example, if you take a test and haven't received your results, you are uncertain about your grade. You endure that uncertainty until the result becomes clear.

On the other hand, if you're starting a new project and need to choose a topic, you're facing ambiguity. There are multiple paths you can take, and multiple ideas you can explore. When you face ambiguity, you can't just wait for it to pass. You need to take action to move forward. You need to work through it.

Our brains often mistake these for one another, but the reality is, ambiguity is a gift to any creative endeavor. It's a natural and necessary part of the creative process, and by embracing it and seeing it as an opportunity, you can make the most of it.

Photo by: Declan Gallagher 

Creating Your Navigation Framework

So how do we become the kinds of people who embrace ambiguity as opposed to simply trying to endure it? The key is giving yourself a framework for exploration rather than rushing to the first resolution you can think of.

Andrea Small and Kelly Schmutte offer a powerful metaphor in their book "Navigating Ambiguity": deep-sea divers exploring the ocean floor. Before they start looking for anything, they chart a grid on the floor to give themselves a sense of where they are in relationship to the unknown. This mapping framework gives them the confidence to search methodically and thoroughly. Even if they find treasure in the very first square, they just flag it and continue searching. They don't stop and ignore the rest of the grid—they continue exploring, trusting that their early discoveries will still be there when they get to the next phase of the process.

This same principle applies to design work. I keep a comprehensive UX activities framework printed out and taped to my wall right next to my desk. It's a meticulous accounting of UX activities, covering everything from research and requirements gathering to delivery and beyond. Every project is different and needs a unique configuration of these activities, but this serves as my reliable map.

Image by: Krisztina Szerovay

I use this framework to orient myself as I work through the discovery and design phases of my work. Each of these activities is a tool that I trust because I've used it and I know how it works and why it works. I can walk into any business anywhere and leverage these frameworks to onboard myself, get to know the business, understand the users, and deliver designs that will bring value. It doesn't matter how many unknowns I'm starting with—as long as I stay optimistic and curious during the process, clarity will come.

The AI Challenge: New Territory, Same Principles

As we move into the age of AI, this kind of mapping becomes even more vital. We're facing a major shift in when and how we conduct usability testing and prototyping. AI systems require designers and engineers to explore system inputs and outputs together in close collaboration, which means the prototyping phase must happen much earlier in the workflow.

We must also account for the nature of predictive models—they don't always behave consistently. This makes it difficult to set clear expectations or test repeatable interactions. We must intentionally design for errors and variations in output confidence.

While our traditional UX frameworks still provide valuable structure, we need new maps better suited for designing AI products. New workflows and frameworks will be incredibly helpful in this era. As powerful as tools like LLMs, visual coding platforms, and note-taking assistants are—helping us synthesize more inputs and explore more variations—ultimately, knowing where I stand in relation to that generated content and how to move forward in my design process is still the key to navigating my work toward success.

There aren't many comprehensive UX frameworks available right now for designing with AI, but here's one from Microsoft that I think offers a valuable piece of the puzzle:

Building Your Ambiguity Muscle

Embracing ambiguity takes practice, but you don't need 14 years of UX experience to develop this skill. Ambiguity is everywhere—it's not just something we deal with at work. You can engage with it whenever you need to plan or decide something.

Next time you need to plan a meal, make a financial decision, or choose where to live, try not to run to your default. Practice engaging with the field of unknown possibilities. If you do, the outcomes will be more interesting—I promise. You will learn that you can trust things to unfold for you as long as you stay curious and interested, and ultimately you'll get better at trusting yourself.

And if that trust falters on some days? Take it from me, that's normal. That's why frameworks and printed cheatsheets exist. They serve as our anchors when the ground feels like it's shifting beneath our feet.

In times of unprecedented change, the designers who thrive won't be those who have all the answers, but those who are comfortable navigating questions. Those who can map the unknown territory, explore it systematically, and trust in their process to guide them toward clarity. The ambiguity isn't going away—but our relationship with it can transform from something we endure into something we embrace.